Steep U.S. tariffs are starting to squeeze the Chinese economy.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

China said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, the first sign since Donald Trump hiked tariffs last month that negotiations could begin between the two sides.