A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket. Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2. Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.

If the Big Ten and SEC can’t come to an agreement on a new format by December, the expectation is that the Playoff moves forward in its current iteration — with 12 total teams, including five conference champions and seven at-large selections.