An escalatory spiral that leads towards Eurasia's 10% 'trade war' scenario, however, would prompt Brussels to deploy escalatory measures, such as "export controls/duties, public procurement curbs, and/or penalties on U.S. services exports" by using the ACI "trade bazooka as a last resort," they concluded.

The European Union and the U.S. are heading for a potential trade deal that includes a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions, two European diplomats said on Wednesday, potentially moving President Donald Trump closer to securing another major trade agreement hours after he unveiled one with Japan.

Trade negotiations between Washington and Brussels are continuing ahead of an August 1 deadline, when US President Donald Trump has vowed to impose 30 percent tariffs on nearly all goods imported from the European Union.