Heading into the 2024 cycle, Republicans saw a Senate map offering flip opportunities in eight red and purple states as a seemingly once-in-a-decade opportunity. Now, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over a smaller battlefield chiefly focused on two Democratic-held red-state seats in Montana and Ohio.

The Economist’s model of America’s Congressional elections estimates both major parties’ chances of winning each House and Senate race, and of controlling each

Democrats and Republicans race for the Senate majority. Democrats are hoping to hold onto their slim Senate majority.