Goldman Sachs economists in a note estimated that consumers could soon bear up to 67% of tariff costs, up from 22%, thus escalating broader inflation risk. Before the Aug. 14 PPI report, markets were nearly unanimous in pricing a September Fed interest rate cut of up to 0.50%.

With the job market faltering and consumer prices not surging as expected, investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates to boost the economy.

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed U.S. inflation increased at a moderate pace in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.